AGP Executive Report

Hormuz Deal Tension: Oil markets and diplomacy stayed locked on the Strait of Hormuz as Iran and the US traded signals of “slight progress” while Rubio and Trump rejected any “tolling system,” and Iran’s enriched-uranium stance kept a final deal out of reach. Mediation Push: Qatar sent a negotiating team to Tehran as Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir arrived for high-level talks, with officials calling it a last-ditch effort to turn a fragile ceasefire into a wider framework. Shipping Reality Check: Iran claimed dozens of vessels transited in coordination, even as US enforcement and the corridor system kept global flows uncertain—fuel prices rose ahead of Memorial Day travel. Oman Governance: Oman issued a new urban planning law under Royal Decree 58/2026 to back sustainable development and Vision 2040. Regional Finance Strain: Iraq is drafting an emergency plan for a $9.5bn monthly deficit tied to reduced exports and Hormuz disruption.

Hormuz Tolls Clash: Iran and Oman are reportedly discussing a fee system for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but US President Trump says “we don’t want tolls” and warns any deal would be unworkable—while Iran’s uranium stance and the toll dispute keep negotiations fragile. US-Iran Maritime Pressure: The US Marines boarded and redirected an Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman as sanctions enforcement continues, adding to shipping uncertainty. Oman’s Role in the Middle: Yemen’s leadership renewed support for Iran and backed its right to defend and control Hormuz, underscoring how regional politics are tightening around Oman’s mediation. Trade Boost: The UK-GCC Free Trade Agreement is set to remove about $779m in duties annually, with Oman included in the bloc. Oman Connectivity: Oman Air announced direct Muscat–Tashkent flights from 2 June, three times a week. Local Business: Towell Auto Group launched the 212 4x4 SUV brand in Oman, pitching it as true off-road capability.

Hormuz Diplomacy Turns Messy: Iran is in talks with Oman over a “permanent toll” system to formalize its control of Strait of Hormuz traffic, while the US pushes back—Trump says he opposes tolls and calls the strait an international waterway. US Pressure at Sea: CENTCOM boarded and redirected an Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, the latest move to enforce the blockade as Iran reviews a new US ceasefire response. Market Shock Watch: Oil prices swung hard on reports of near-deal progress, then reversed as Iran’s uranium stance and toll disputes clouded outcomes; IEA warns markets could hit a “red zone” in summer if the strait stays constrained. Oman’s Domestic Push: In Muscat, Sayyid Bilarab patronized a symposium backing decentralised governorate development under Oman Vision 2040, and a military Hajj mission departed for 1447 AH. Finance & Travel: Oman Arab Bank priced a $400m AT1 bond; Salalah Airport welcomed Etihad’s first flight for Khareef Dhofar 2026. Regional Trade Momentum: Britain and the GCC concluded a $5bn-a-year free trade deal, boosting Kuwait’s trade and investment ties.

Gulf Blockade Pressure: The U.S. boarded and searched the Iranian-flagged tanker Celestial Sea in the Gulf of Oman, then ordered it to alter course, saying it continues to fully enforce the blockade and has redirected 91 commercial ships. Diplomacy vs. Threats: Washington says Iran talks are in the “final stages” and warns of “nasty” options if it doesn’t deliver “100%” answers; Tehran says it’s reviewing the latest U.S. proposal and insists frozen-asset release and an end to port restrictions come first. Hormuz Workarounds: While shipping risks persist, the UAE’s Hormuz-bypass pipeline is now about 50% complete toward 2027, and Iraq has ordered alternative export routes as disruptions bite. Oman Angle: Oman is also pushing ahead on the home front—MSX signed a deal to expand sustainable finance and carbon market work during Oman Sustainability Week, and AI is being rolled into road construction in Dhofar. Trade Boost: In a separate economic signal, the UK and GCC sealed a landmark free trade deal worth about $5bn a year long-term, with Oman included.

Hormuz Pressure, Up Close: US Marines boarded and redirected the Iranian-flagged tanker M/T Celestial Sea in the Gulf of Oman over suspected blockade evasion, with CENTCOM saying it has redirected 91 commercial ships and that the blockade is still fully enforced. UAE Energy Detour: ADNOC says the UAE’s West-East crude pipeline bypassing Hormuz is now nearly 50% complete, aiming to double export capacity via Fujairah by 2027—while warning global oil flows may take months to recover after the war ends. Diplomacy on a Knife-Edge: Trump says US talks with Iran are in the “final stages,” but threatens “nasty” actions if no deal lands; Iran warns any renewed aggression could widen beyond the region. Oman in the Mix: Oman joined the GCC-EU Political Committee meeting in Brussels and pushed health-sector AI “trusted digital transformation” at the World Health Assembly in Geneva. Local Spotlight: Oman launched AI-powered autonomous asphalt paving for road works, and the Ministry of Information screened the documentary Dr Thoms (Al Dakhtar Thoms) honoring a key figure in Oman’s early healthcare system. Trade Signal: Britain signed a long-awaited GCC trade deal, cutting tariffs on UK goods including food and medical equipment.

Hormuz Pressure Escalates: The US seized an Iran-linked VLCC, the Skywave, in the Indian Ocean carrying over 1m barrels of Iranian crude—its third such grab since February—while also blacklisting 19 more ships tied to Iran’s oil trade. Mine Threats: US intelligence says at least 10 mines are in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to warnings that shipping routes are becoming “extremely hazardous.” Iran’s Control Push: Tehran is doubling down on managing the strait, with lawmakers calling it a “permanent asset” and unveiling a new transit authority framework that includes tolls and permissions. Oman in the Mix: Iran says it is working with Oman on a navigation/transit mechanism, as the wider crisis keeps rerouting trade and raising costs. Oman Domestic: Oman Charitable Organisation launched a 2026–2028 development plan focused on digital humanitarian services, governance, and long-term funding. Energy & Science: Oman signed a scientific cooperation agreement with CERN in Geneva, and energy officials rolled out new government building efficiency deals and green digital platforms.

Hormuz Tensions, Again: Iran announced a new authority to “manage” the Strait of Hormuz and talk of tolls is back in focus as the US weighs force. US-Iran Brinkmanship: Trump said he was “an hour away” from striking Iran but paused after Gulf leaders urged more time for talks, while Iran continues pushing revised proposals. Oman’s Diplomatic & Science Push: Oman signed a scientific cooperation agreement with CERN in Geneva and is taking part in WHA79, stressing health-emergency readiness and digital systems. Digital Government: Oman’s MTCIT held a session on using the local AI linguistic model “Mueen” to speed up government services. Cybercrime Crackdown: Interpol’s “Operation Ramz” arrested 201 people across MENA, with Oman among participating countries. Local Life & Economy: Oman’s public prosecution warned against sharing private content without consent; Eid Al Adha travel options remain available for a five-day break.

Oman Watch: Oman’s Consumer Protection Authority moved to cool social-media claims about building-material price spikes, saying reported increases are inaccurate—iron up 12% from February to May, cement up 18%—and warning it has intensified market monitoring and legal action against violators. Hormuz & Diplomacy: Iran says it is in continuous talks with Oman to build a new Strait of Hormuz vessel-traffic mechanism, while US President Trump says he has postponed a “very major” planned attack on Iran after Gulf leaders asked for more time for negotiations. Regional Markets: Gulf equities slid again, with Dubai’s main index falling for a seventh straight session as investors weighed Middle East risk and drone-related headlines. Oman Tech Push: Omantel’s Otech says Oman’s next AI growth depends on local cloud, data centres, cybersecurity and AI computing infrastructure—not just apps—expanding Tier-3 capacity and GPU-based services. Global Spillover: US dropped criminal fraud charges against Gautam Adani while settling Iran sanctions violations tied to LPG imports, and the Hormuz crisis continues to reshape trade routes and shipping risk.

Middle East Tensions: Trump says he’s “holding off” a planned US attack on Iran after Gulf leaders asked for more time, but adds the US is ready for a “large scale assault” if talks fail, while Iran continues to trade revised proposals via Pakistan and discusses a Strait of Hormuz navigation mechanism with Oman. Sanctions & Business: India’s Adani Enterprises will pay $275m to the US Treasury to settle alleged Iran-linked LPG sanctions violations, as the Trump administration also moves to dismiss related fraud charges tied to a separate bribery probe. Oman’s Health & Energy Push: Oman presents a comprehensive health-system vision at the 79th World Health Assembly in Geneva, while Oman Sustainability Week and OPES open in Muscat with a clear message: scale green investment and execution. Local Governance & Rights: Pakistan’s opposition lawmakers protest in the National Assembly over medical care for Imran Khan, and Oman’s OHRC holds an orientation on its new legal framework with civil society. Regional Connectivity: Qatar Airways expands African routes from June 16, and Asyad signs its first usufruct deal for a business complex at Muscat Airport Free Zone.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Oman condemned a drone attack that sparked a fire at the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant, stressing rejection of “hostile and escalatory acts” and urging dialogue and respect for international law. US-Iran Pressure: Trump escalated rhetoric, warning Iran the “clock is ticking” and pushing for a faster peace deal, while Gulf markets slid as uncertainty grew. Maritime Risk Signals: Iran’s military adviser warned the Sea of Oman could become a “graveyard” for US ships if a naval blockade continues. Digital Leverage Fight: Iran is also floating a plan to charge fees for subsea internet cables under Hormuz, aiming to turn digital infrastructure into a new pressure point. Oman’s Domestic Moves: Oman’s banking sector is shifting toward an “intelligence-first” era, and Nama and O-Green launched a 2.7 GW continuous renewables project in Mahout and Duqm. Regional Sports: The Arabian Gulf Cup “Khaleeji 27” draw is set for Jeddah on May 19, with Oman among the eight teams.

Seeb’s Challenge at the Top: HH Sayyid Shihab bin Tarik Al Said says Seeb’s three straight domestic league titles are the result of a long-term sporting project, but staying on top is “the real challenge,” demanding stronger admin, finance, tech and fan support. Trade Corridors Go Live: Sharjah and Oman Customs launched an integrated logistics corridor linking Port Khalid to Sohar, with first shipments already moving via land borders—while Dubai’s “Green Corridor” keeps trade flowing during disruptions. Cost of Living Pressure: Oman inflation hit 3.2% in April, driven by a 25% jump in vegetable prices. Renewables Deal: Nama Power and O-Green signed a power purchase agreement for a 2.7GW continuous hybrid renewable project in Mahout and Duqm. Eid Al Adha Calendar: UAE confirmed Eid Al Adha starts Wednesday, May 27. Health & Skills: Oman’s first ear surgery using internal lymphatic duct closure was performed at SQU Hospital; ROP also welcomed a new group of citizens into training. Khareef Branding: ROP announced commemorative vehicle plates for Khareef Dhofar 2026.

Hormuz Pressure at the UN: India told the UN that targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is “unacceptable,” after an India-flagged vessel was attacked off Oman on May 13; India’s envoy Parvathaneni Harish also pushed for short- and long-term fixes to protect energy and fertiliser flows. Iran’s Next Move: Iran says it will roll out a controlled shipping system for Hormuz, while also signaling it wants fees from major tech and cable users—raising fresh questions about freedom of navigation. Shipping Disruption, Oman in the Middle: The US says it has redirected 78 vessels and disabled four to enforce a blockade, and Oman-linked rescue efforts continue as crews are pulled from incidents in the region. Oman Domestic Watch: Muscat’s stock index slid below 8,000 points last week amid regional tensions and oil-price swings; Royal Oman Police also warned against carbon monoxide deaths after four people were found dead in a running vehicle. Energy & Industry: Sohar Titanium has begun production at its first electric arc furnace, aiming to reach full capacity by end-2026.

Oman Safety Alert: Royal Oman Police reported four Asian nationals found dead inside a parked vehicle in Al Musannah after inhaling carbon monoxide from an idling engine, urging people not to sleep or stay in enclosed spaces with engines running. Hormuz Pressure Builds: US Central Command says it has redirected 78 commercial ships and disabled four to enforce a blockade tied to the Iran war, while Thailand urges Iran to allow safe passage for eight stranded Thai-flagged vessels and Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi says lack of trust is blocking talks with the US. Gulf Energy Workarounds: UAE plans to fast-track a West-East pipeline via Fujairah to double export capacity by 2027, aiming to bypass Hormuz as disruptions hit markets. UN Diplomacy: UN chief António Guterres praised Jordan for a Yemen deal to release over 1,600 detainees, with Oman and Switzerland credited for earlier rounds. Local Economy & Markets: MSX closed the week at 7,959 points and listed firms posted OMR406.6m net profit in Q1 2026.

Yemen Prisoner Deal: The UN says a breakthrough reached in Amman will see the release of more than 1,600 conflict detainees, with António Guterres urging fast implementation via the ICRC and pushing both sides toward further releases under the 2018 Stockholm framework. Hormuz Flashpoints: Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz stay high as Iran-linked moves and maritime incidents continue—an Indian cargo ship reportedly sank off Oman after a suspected drone attack, while a “floating armoury” vessel was seized near the UAE and is said to be heading for Iranian waters. Diplomacy Under Strain: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi again blamed “lack of trust” for stalled talks with the US, while also welcoming diplomatic help—especially from China. Energy Workarounds: The UAE is accelerating pipeline plans to bypass Hormuz via Fujairah, as leaders push to keep oil routes “open and safe.” Oman-Iraq Links: Oman and Iraq reaffirmed cooperation in a fresh call between their foreign ministers.

Hormuz Flashpoints: A ship seized near the UAE was reportedly taken toward Iran, while an attack near Oman left another cargo ship sunk—fresh proof that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is still driving chaos at sea. US–China Diplomacy: After Trump met Xi in Beijing, both sides said Hormuz must stay open, but no concrete Iran deal emerged, leaving shipping rules and enforcement in dispute. Iran’s Hard Line: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi told journalists Tehran has “no trust in Americans,” and said Hormuz is open for all except countries fighting Iran—while insisting management should be handled by Iran and Oman. Gulf Workarounds: The UAE moved to fast-track a pipeline doubling export capacity via Fujairah by 2027, aiming to reduce reliance on Hormuz. Oman in the Middle: Oman is again pulled into the crossfire as Iran claims coordination with Muscat over future strait management and possible fees. Ceasefire Drift: Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire by 45 days, but West Asia talks remain fragile as Hormuz tensions persist.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Trump says his patience with Iran is running out after talks with Xi in Beijing, insisting Iran must not get nuclear weapons and that the strait must stay open—while fresh incidents keep the risk high, including a ship seized near the UAE and another Indian-flagged cargo vessel sunk off Oman; Maritime Security Fallout: India and the UAE condemned the attack on the Indian vessel and Omani authorities said the crew was rescued, as reports also surfaced of “unauthorised personnel” boarding a ship near Fujairah and steering it toward Iranian waters; Oman Water Security: Nama Water Services is advancing aquifer storage and recovery using desalinated-water injection to build underground reserves for peak demand and emergencies; Diplomacy in Motion: Iran’s Araghchi met Modi and Jaishankar in New Delhi on West Asia and shipping safety, while Oman’s OCCI joined the Kazan forum to push private-sector trade links; Markets on Edge: Oil rose on renewed Hormuz worries and Trump’s comments, and regional stocks slipped as investors watched the Iran talks stall.